Evaluación de rentabilidad de madera de pino bajo opciones reales en la Sierra Norte de Oaxaca, Mexico

A profitability analysis of pine wood was carried out in Ixtlán de Juárez, Oaxaca, México, where forest exploitation is solely timber-yielding, and is done exclusively through the harvest of trees of various pine species, through exploitation systems of whole shafts and short wood. The wood is classified at street level according to lengths, qualities, and is transported to the communal property sawmill. Economic information was gathered to calculate the financial indicators and to determine the profitability of the pine wood exploitation through the traditional approach: Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), complemented by the real options approach using the Back Scholes method, considering an option of abandonment and an option of expansion. Through the evaluation of projects by the traditional method, NPV0, IRR34 % and benefit-cost relation1.04 were obtained. These indicators show that the enterprise has a positive financial profitability. The methodology of real options indicates that the option of abandonment is less profitable compared to the option of expansion, based on the results obtained, with a difference of $14, 556,250 MX pesos ($18.90/USD).