In order to guarantee the success of the nascent cellulose-based biofuel industry, it is crucial to identify the most economically relevant components of the biofuel production path. To this aim, an original stochastic financial model is developed to estimate the impact that different feedstock production and biofuel conversion parameters have on the probability of economic success. Estimation of the model was carried out using Monte Carlo simulation techniques along with parametric maximum likelihood estimation procedures. Results indicate that operational efficiency strategies should concentrate on improving feedstock yields and extending the feedstock growing season.
