@article{Luis-Rojas:347670,
      recid = {347670},
      author = {Luis-Rojas, Samuel and García-Dalman, Cipatli and  Aguirre-Moreno, Gloria S. and Hernández-Loaiza, Luis M. and  Viveros-Rogel, Jorge},
      title = {Fluctuations and volatility of white eggs  consumer prices  in the Mexico Valley},
      journal = {Agro Productividad},
      address = {2024-01-02},
      number = {2394-2024-4573},
      month = {Jan},
      year = {2024},
      abstract = {Objective: To develop a time series model and analyze the  characteristic fluctuations of the average white  eggs  consumer prices in the Mexico Valley (AWECP), quantifying  the seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of said  prices.  Design/methodology/approach: A Moving Average Time Series  Smoothing method was used to reduce the  variation of a  data set, and separate cyclical, seasonal, and OLS  variations to calculate the trend line. Results: The  Seasonal Component (SC) indicates that in autumn-winter the  AWECP is volatile above the  annual average by 6.3% while  in spring-summer it declines by 9.13% on average. The price  volatility is largely  explained by external factors and  the biological process of poultry animals throughout one  year. The cyclical  component (CC) was 34 months and occurs  irregularly. Limitations on study/implications: This  research focused on finding the SC, T, and CC, but not  their  respective indices. To make short-term forecasts, it  is necessary to calculate the indices and compare them to   other time series analysis methodologies.  Findings/conclusions: The analysis of the AWECP in the  Mexico Valley indicates the presence of SC and  an upward  CC trend in the time series. The AWECP volatility has  harmful effects on the basic basket of the  middle and  lower-class population in the Mexico Valley given that this  food is the most complete, cheap, and  accessible source of  animal protein in the Mexican market.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/347670},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.347670},
}