@article{Burke:345321,
      recid = {345321},
      author = {Burke, William J. and Muyanga, Milu and Munthali, Maggie},
      title = {Policy Implications of Escalating Tropical Cyclone Threats  to Malawi Amidst Rising Indian Ocean Temperatures},
      address = {2024-09-01},
      number = {2371-2024-1300},
      series = {MwAPATA Working Paper 24/06},
      pages = {19},
      month = {Sep},
      year = {2024},
      abstract = {The threat of extreme tropical weather impacting Malawi is  rising. In over 130 years of recorded history up to 1980,  only a single storm made landfall on the coast of  Mozambique with winds high enough to be categorized as a  cyclone. From 1980 to 2001 there were seven, one of which  was stronger than a category 1. From 2002 to 2023 there  were nine, including six that were stronger than category  1. Stronger storms have begun surviving long enough to  impact Malawi. We use United States National Oceanic and  Atmospheric Administration data to investigate whether  recent extreme weather events is an unfortunate coincidence  or part of a trend that can be expected to continue. We see  water surface temperatures rising in the parts of the  Indian Ocean where storms that threaten the southeastern  coast of Africa are formed. Warmer water causes stronger  storms, as evidenced by rising average sustained wind  speeds. Stronger storms, in turn, are more likely to  survive over land long enough to threaten Malawi, implying  more extreme tropical weather can be expected in the  future. In the near-term policymakers and donors could  respond by supporting disaster preparedness for effective  response, developing comprehensive multi-sectoral and  multi-hazard risk maps and investment plans. In the  longer-term, Malawi could invest in disaster risk reduction  and resilience building through a range of investments that  include establishing water drainage, high-efficiency  irrigation systems, catchment and road infrastructure, and  promoting soil health to improve retention.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/345321},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.345321},
}