@article{Klymenko:337439,
      recid = {337439},
      author = {Klymenko, Nataliia  and Voronenko, Iryna  and Nehrey,  Maryna  and Rogoza, Konstyantyn  and Rogoza, Nataliy },
      title = {Risk assessment of shock periods and investment  attractiveness of agroholdings of Ukraine},
      journal = {Agricultural and Resource Economics: International  Scientific E-Journal},
      address = {2023-06-20},
      number = {1868-2023-1457},
      month = {Jun},
      year = {2023},
      abstract = {Purpose. This paper deals with analysis and assessment of  the risks specific to the agricultural business under  conditions of macroeconomic uncertainty associated with the  war unleashed by russia on the territory of Ukraine. The  performed study included the stability analysis of the  agricultural holdings in Ukraine before and after the shock  period, and their investment attractiveness. Methodology /  approach. In the research process, a combination of methods  of risk analysis of Ukrainian agricultural holdings during  the shock period and the speed of recovery of their  investment attractiveness was proposed. Daily stock rates  of selected agricultural holdings served as information  support for calculations. The sample was subdivided into  three periods: before the shock, which was characterized by  a certain level of stability; the shock period caused by  the war; and the recovery period after the shock. The study  was carried out with the use of the shock depth indication  and the recovery level following the shock, the risk  analysis based on VaR and CVaR approach and forecasting of  further liquidity curve of the agricultural producers based  on Holt-Winters’ model. Results. The depth of the fall in  the shock period (Sd) and the level of recovery after the  shock period (Rl) for agricultural holdings of Ukraine have  been established. The Sd indicator ranged from -44 % to 71  %, and Rl averaged 56 %, which confirmed the insignificant  level of recovery of capitalization of agricultural  holdings. Positive trends of overcoming the shock period  were established for all studied agricultural holdings of  Ukraine. A significant difference in the liquidity of  assets of agricultural holdings was revealed. Originality /  scientific novelty. The originality of the research is the  approbation of a set of methods that allow simultaneously  considering various features of the manifestation of risks  caused by russian full-scale armed aggression. Practical  value / implications. The practical value of the research  lies in the determination of the negative impact of the  risks of shock periods and the assessment of the investment  attractiveness of agricultural holdings, which can be used  for decision-making. The proposed approaches can be  recommended for the analysis of other agricultural  enterprises and for potential investors in other periods of  significant changes and in the post-war period.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/337439},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.337439},
}