@article{Zuo:333484,
      recid = {333484},
      author = {Zuo, Xuejin and Peng, Xiujian and Yang, Xin and Yang,  Xiaoping and Yue, Han and Wang, Meifeng and Adams, Philip},
      title = {The Economic Characteristics of an Aging Society: a  Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis},
      address = {2022},
      pages = {33},
      year = {2022},
      note = {Presented at the 25th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis (Virtual Conference)},
      abstract = {China is experiencing rapid population ageing. The elderly  65 and older accounted for 13.5 per cent of the total  population in 2020. It will continue to increase to 40 per  cent in 2100. What’s the economic implication of population  aging? Most research has focused on the macroeconomic  effects of a declining labour force and increasing elderly.  There is insufficient research on the changes in demand for  goods and services brought about by population ageing. The  research on the impact of such changes on the economy under  the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework is even  rare. This paper attempts to fill the research gap in this  area. Using a dynamic CGE model of the Chinese economy, in  the baseline scenario we projected China’s economic growth  path over the period of 2019 to 2100. We assumed that there  is no change in the age-specific consumption demand even  though there is population ageing which is reflected by the  declining working-age population and the increasing elderly  population. The simulation results revealed that China has  to rely on technology improvement and capital stock  increases to support its economic growth. The increasing  elderly will put high pressure on China’s general  government budget balance. Starting with the baseline  described above, we constructed a policy scenario that  deviated from the baseline due to ageing-induced changes to  household and government consumption preferences for  education, health and aged care services. With ageing,  demand shifts against education and towards health and aged  care services. The simulation results show that the effects  on the macroeconomy of age-structure driven changes are  negligible, even though the changes will affect the  industrial outputs and cause small adjustments to economic  structure. The increased demand for medical and aged-care  services will exceed the decreased demand for education,  thus driving up the general government budget deficit.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333484},
}