@article{SabadiniCarvalho:333203,
      recid = {333203},
      author = {Sabadini Carvalho, Terciane and Souza, Kenia and  Domingues, Edson},
      title = {Commodities demand growth and its impacts on deforestation  and CO2 emissions in the Brazilian Amazon region},
      address = {2020},
      year = {2020},
      note = {Presented during the 23rd Annual Conference on Global  Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)},
      abstract = {Brazil is one of a small group of countries which accounts  for most of the global exports in agricultural commodities.  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations  estimated that Brazilian soybean exports would increase by  18%, beef exports would grow by 49% and biodiesel would  increase by 37% from 2018 to 2027. Historically, those  activities are considered important drivers of  deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Considering the  increasing in recent deforestation rates, it is important  to study the consequences of these scenario over land use  change and CO2 emissions. To achieve this goal, we use an  interregional dynamic computable general equilibrium model  (CGE) for 30 regions in the Amazon and the rest of Brazil  with a land use module. The results suggest that between  2018 and 2030 total deforestation could increase by 136,403  km2 in the baseline scenario and more 10,887 km2 because of  the growing commodities. However, in a scenario with Soy  Moratorium deforestation would be smaller, around 10,340  km2 relative to the baseline. That means a reduction of 29  MtCO2, with marginal economic impacts. In a scenario of  zero deforestation, regional economic impacts would be  greater. However, there would be a reduction of almost  7,000 MtCO2.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333203},
}