000333024 001__ 333024
000333024 005__ 20230304054322.0
000333024 041__ $$aeng
000333024 245__ $$aThe Economic Consequences of the 2018 US-China Trade Conflict: A CGE Simulation Analysis
000333024 260__ $$c2019
000333024 269__ $$a2019
000333024 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000333024 500__ $$ahttp://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/handle/10086/29763; Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
000333024 520__ $$aThis paper aims at evaluating the economic consequences of the 2018 US-China trade conflict. The potential impact of the proposed tariff increases is calculated using a global CGE model. Capital deepening and technological spillover induced by trade are also taken into account to explore the long-run influence. We can derive the following implications. First, the additionally imposed tariffs on goods alone declines the GDP in the US and China by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. The equivalent variation in the US and China is reduced by 9.8 billion and 35.2 billion USD, respectively. Although other countries gain from trade diversion, losses exceed gains globally. Second, considering the effect from capital deepening and technological spillover induced by trade makes the situation worse. The GDP in the US and China declines by 1.6% and 2.5%, respectively. The equivalent variation in the US and China is reduced by 199.5 billion USD and 187.1 billion USD, respectively. Again, the trade diversion is not large enough to recover losses in these countries. Third, the imposed tariffs distort relative prices, resulting in changes to the global production structure. Both the US and China lose their comparative advantage in transport, electronic, and machinery equipment production, while other countries expand their production in these sectors. Finally, China’s retaliatory tariff increases worsens the US economy to some extent, but it comes at a cost to the Chinese economy. In the long run, retaliation is not an appropriate policy response.
000333024 546__ $$aEnglish
000333024 650__ $$aInternational Relations/Trade
000333024 6531_ $$aPreferential trading arrangements
000333024 6531_ $$aAsia (East)
000333024 6531_ $$aNorth America
000333024 700__ $$aTsutsumi, Masahiko
000333024 773__ $$j2019
000333024 8564_ $$98aa3da4a-096d-4b39-a9d6-6540a66b9852$$s1170603$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333024/files/9206.pdf
000333024 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:333024$$pGLOBAL_SET
000333024 913__ $$aBy depositing this Content ('Content') in AgEcon Search, I agree that  I am solely responsible for any consequences of uploading this Content to AgEcon Search and making it publicly available, and I represent and warrant that: I am either the sole creator and the owner of the copyrights and all other rights in the Content; or, without obtaining another’s permission, I have the right to deposit the Content in an archive such as AgEcon Search. To the extent that any portions of the Content are not my own creation, they are used with the copyright holder’s express permission or as permitted by law. Additionally, the Content does not infringe the copyrights or other intellectual property rights of another, nor does the Content violate any laws or another’s rights of privacy or publicity. The Content contains no restricted, private, confidential, or otherwise protected data or information that should not be publicly shared. I understand that AgEcon Search will do its best to provide perpetual access to my Content. In order to support these efforts, I grant the Regents of the University of Minnesota ('University'), through AgEcon Search, the following non-exclusive, irrevocable, royalty-free, world-wide rights and licenses: to access, reproduce, distribute and publicly display the Content, in whole or in part, in order to secure, preserve and make it publicly available, and to make derivative works based upon the Content in order to migrate the Content to other media or formats, or to preserve its public access. These terms do not transfer ownership of the copyright(s) in the Content. These terms only grant to the University the limited license outlined above.
000333024 980__ $$a2457