@article{Winning:333016,
      recid = {333016},
      author = {Winning, Matthew and Calzadilla, Alvaro and Nechifor,  Victor and Bleischwitz, Raimund},
      title = {Modelling the potential saturation levels of iron and  steel in China: wider economic impacts and circular economy  implications},
      address = {2018},
      year = {2018},
      note = {Presented at the 21st Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, Cartagena, Colombia},
      abstract = {Iron and steel demand in China has been both a huge source  of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions over the  last 15-20 years. China produces around half of the world’s  crude steel (World Steel Association, 2017). However,  concerns about air pollution, future economic development,  climate change, resource efficiency, and the circular  economy have started positing questions about what the role  of steel production in China will be over the coming  decades. In particular what will happen as changes in  economic structure, production efficiency and environmental  standards. Many global modelling studies extrapolate future  demand for materials based on available data of the  previous few years or decades. However, this short  time-frame ignores the longer development pattern  undertaken over several decades or most of a century. As  countries develop it is likely that their per capita  consumption of materials will begin to decrease and that  stocks per capita will then saturate. In this analysis we  attempt to explore a range of potential saturation levels  for steel in China and consider the wider economic impacts  of steel saturation on other economic sectors as well as  important steel producing and consuming other countries. We  use the ENGAGE-materials model (Winning et al, 2017)  developed by UCL ISR which is based on GTAP 9 for 2007.  Here we keep the additional iron ore mining sector  developed in ENGAGE-materials but simplify the distinction  between primary and secondary steel production in order to  consider only the the overall saturation effect in the  steel industry.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333016},
}