@article{Bibas:332912,
      recid = {332912},
      author = {Bibas, Ruben and Chateau, Jean and Dellink, Rob and  McCarthy, Andrew},
      title = {Modelling the circular economy: designing a global  baseline of economic activity and material flows},
      address = {2017},
      year = {2017},
      note = {Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA},
      abstract = {This paper aims at describing the process to design a  business as usual baseline scenario, and deriving the  environmental consequences in terms of energy, emissions  and material use. It starts by describing current  demographic trends and corresponding Baseline projections.  It then outlines economic trends and projections, including  economic growth (GDP, consumption, sectoral composition)  and its drivers, such as labour and capital. These trends  are based on a gradual conditional convergence of income  levels among countries. In its final section it explores  two factors which directly link economic trends to  environmental pressures: energy use (energy mix such as  fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear) and land use (in  particular agricultural land).  Two original results are  expected from this paper compared to the previous ones  describing the baseline creation methodology. First, the  methodological results consists in developing a procedure  to represent the circular economy in a global multi-region  CGE model and link material use to economic output. The  second output is a material-explicit baseline that goes  beyond the current economic projections in which at best  energy is described.  From these results, the  quantification of material use and flows in the projected  baseline indicates the critical materials to monitor for  supply security as well as greenhouse gas and outdoor air  pollutant emissions. Material flows and the relative  decoupling from economic activity can be calibrated to  historical trends and information in the literature. This  allows projections of resource efficiency, growth  employment and trade.  The model extension and baseline  developed in this paper constitute a solid starting point  to assess the impact of public policies promoting the  transition to a circular economy. The effects of these  policies on growth, competitiveness, and employment  constitute the cornerstone of the rhetoric advocating for  them and can be tested in the developed framework.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332912},
}