@article{Nong:332828,
      recid = {332828},
      author = {Nong, Duy and Warziniack, Travis and Countryman, Amanda M.  and Grey-Avis, Erin},
      title = {Effects of a Melting Arctic on Risk of Invasive Species  Spread},
      address = {2017},
      year = {2017},
      note = {Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA},
      abstract = {This paper examines the risk for nonindigenous species  spread from key trade partners in East Asia to the U.S. due  to the potential opening of Arctic shipping lanes in the  near future. Changes in risk primarily originate from  expected increases in trade flows from Asian-Pacific  countries since the Arctic shipping routes would reduce the  sailing distances between East-Asian countries and the U.S.  east coast compared to the current route via the Panama  Canal. The changes in risk for species spread is assessed  based on two components: the risk of species introduction,  which correlated with changes in imports into the U.S., and  the risk of species establishment, which is based on the  levels of the climate similarity between the U.S. east  coast and countries in East Asia. We find that the greatest  increases in risk of invasion to the U.S. are from Japan,  due to the high levels of climate matching between the U.S.  east coast and Japan, as well as expected increases in U.S.  imports from Japan resulting from decreased transportation  and trade costs when the Arctic shipping routes are used.  The increase in risk of invasion from China is also  potentially high because of expected large quantities of  imports into the U.S. and relatively high climate  similarities between the two countries. On the other hand,  there is negligible expected risk of invasion from Hong  Kong and the Philippines. Relatively small changes in  expected U.S. imports in tandem with very low climate  similarity between the U.S. and both partners, leads to  minimal potential for species introduction or  establishment.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332828},
}