@article{Hertel:332718,
      recid = {332718},
      author = {Hertel, Thomas and Baldos, Uris Lantz and van der  Mensbrugghe, Dominique},
      title = {Predicting Long Term Food Demand, Cropland Use and Prices},
      address = {2016},
      year = {2016},
      note = {Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, Washington DC, USA; Annual Review of Resource  Economics},
      abstract = {This paper seeks to survey, understand and reconcile the  widely divergent estimates of long run global crop output,  land use and price projections in the current literature.  We begin by reviewing the history of such projections and  the different models and assumptions used in these  exercises. We then introduce an analytical partial  equilibrium model of the global crops sector which provides  a lens through which we can evaluate this previous work.  The resulting decomposition of model responses into demand,  extensive supply and intensive supply elasticities offers  important insights into the diversity of model  parameterizations being employed by the existing models.  This, along with the methodology for implementing  productivity growth, helps explain some of the divergences  in results. We conclude the review by employing a numerical  version of the analytical model, which serves as an  emulator of this entire class of models, in order to  explore how uncertainties in the common underlying drivers  and economic responses contribute to uncertain projections  of output, prices and land use in 2050. We place each of  the published estimates reviewed within this paper into the  resulting empirical distribution of outcomes at  mid-century. In addition, we quantify the sensitivity of  these projections to model inputs. Our findings suggest  that the top priority for future research should be  improved estimation of agricultural factor supply  elasticities – a topic which has been largely neglected in  recent decades.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332718},
}