@article{Kishimoto:332390,
      recid = {332390},
      author = {Kishimoto, Paul N. and Zhang, Da and Zhang, Xiliang and  Karplus, Valerie J.},
      title = {Modeling regional transportation demand in China and the  impacts of a national carbon constraint},
      address = {2013},
      pages = {31},
      year = {2013},
      note = {Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, Shanghai, China},
      abstract = {Climate and energy policy in China will have important and  uneven impacts on the country’s regionally heterogeneous  transport system. In order to simulate these impacts,  transport sector detail is added to a multi-sector, static,  global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which  resolves China’s provinces as distinct regions. This  framework is used to perform an analysis of national-level  greenhouse gas (GHG) policies. Freight, commercial  passenger and household (private vehicle) transport are  separately represented, with the former two categories  further disaggregated into road and non-road modes. The  preparation of model inputs is described, including  assembly of a provincial transport data set from  publicly-available statistics. Two policies are analyzed:  the first represents China’s target of a 17% reduction in  GHG emissions intensity of GDP during the Twelfth Five Year  Plan (12FYP), and the second China’s Copenhagen target of a  40–45% reduction in the same quantity during the period  2005–2020. We find significant heterogeneity in regional  transport impacts. We find that both freight and passenger  transportation in some of the poorest provinces that rely  heavily on energy-intensive resource and raw materials  exports are most adversely affected, as they offer many of  the least cost abatement opportunities and the  transformation of their energy systems strongly affects  transport demand. At the national level, we find that of  all the transport-related sectors, road freight transport  activity is affected most by policy, likely due to its high  energy intensity and limited low cost opportunities for  improving efficiency. The type and degree of regional  disparity in impacts is relevant to central and provincial  government decisions which set and allocate climate, energy  and transport policy targets. We describe how this research  establishes a basis for further regional CGE analyses of  the economic, energy and environmental impacts of  transport-focused policies including vehicle ownership  restrictions, taxation of driving activity or fuels, and  the supply of public transit.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332390},
}