@article{Rutten:332196,
      recid = {332196},
      author = {Rutten, Martine and Van Rooij, Wilbert and Van Dijk,  Michiel},
      title = {Global-to-local modelling of land use dynamics in Vietnam},
      address = {2012},
      pages = {41},
      year = {2012},
      note = {Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland},
      abstract = {This paper presents the preliminary results of two  hypothetical futures for Vietnam, a High Climate Impact and  a High Economic Growth Scenario using a modified version of  GTAP. The land use component has been improved and more  detailed data for Vietnam has been added. However, the most  notable feature is the implantation of a global-to-local  modelling approach, which combines the macroeconomic MAGNET  model and CLUE land use model. Results show that the  structure of the Vietnamese economy, land distribution, and  the composition of the food consumption basket are little  affected by the scenarios. Impacts are, however, visible  across sectors, with important inter-sectoral linkages  between primary and processing industrial sectors. Climate  change, primarily modelled via yields, is shown to slow  down the economy. An increased demand for land by crops at  the cost of livestock and commercial (production) forestry  pushes up land prices with knock-on effects for the rest of  the economy. Food security deteriorates across the globe  and in Vietnam, with substitution towards cheaper imports.  Pursuing higher economic growth by increasing yields and  technological progress in manufacturing and agriculture  sectors can turn these developments around and minimise  land price increases. Food security improves in Vietnam  (and globally), with substitution towards cheaper domestic  goods and a slight shift away from processed rice towards  other food products. Future land use maps reveal that the  largest changes will take place in the conversion of  nonproduction forests and bare and shrub land to production  forest. The increase of built up land is partly the result  of a decrease in paddy land. The increase in urban area is  mainly located in the Red River Delta region, the northern  part of the North Central Coast and in the Central  Highlands. While land use patterns across scenarios are  relatively similar, climate change is shown to lead to a  slightly lower increase of the production forest areas,  while a higher economic growth path for Vietnam is shown to  result in a higher growth of production forest, mainly in  the west, and urban areas. An overlay of future paddy and  urban area with potential flood maps show that a  significant area of these land uses are threatened by  floods, which are likely to result in reduced crop  productivity and economic losses, posing a threat to food  security.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332196},
}