@article{Strutt:331920,
      recid = {331920},
      author = {Strutt, Anna and Walmsley, Terrie},
      title = {Trade and Sectoral Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis:  A Dynamic CGE Analysis},
      address = {2010},
      pages = {30},
      year = {2010},
      note = {Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, Penang, Malaysia},
      abstract = {The current global financial crisis has resulted in a  significant downturn in the global economy, with impacts  felt throughout the world. We use a dynamic global general  equilibrium model to explore the effects of two economic  slowdown scenarios, with a particular focus on trade and  sectoral impacts. We include the impact of fiscal stimulus  packages and a general decline in global investment. We  also explore the potential impacts of using trade policy to  respond to the crisis, by investigating the impact on the  global economy of moving toward greater protection of  domestic industries. In the short and long run, most  countries lose as a result of the crisis, as expected. The  extent of the declines in the long run depend on the extent  to which investment declines in the region and on the  extent to which savings declines globally. Globally, our  results suggest that under a ‘moderate’ crisis scenario,  trade falls by approximately 14 percent from the 2020  baseline. Within this, the composition of trade changes  quite markedly, with shifts reflecting changes in demand  for construction of investment goods; the increasing  longer‐term demand from China and India; and at least in  the short run, different capital intensities of production  in different economies. A more extended crisis or increased  protection are both expected to further accentuate global  losses. While the more severe crisis adversely impacts all  sectors, the increase in tariffs mainly impacts sectors and  regions which increase protection significantly},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331920},
}