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Abstract

This paper describes the methodology used at the World Bank to develop dynamic scenarios using the Bank's global computable general equilibrium model. The dynamic CGE has been used in a number of contexts over the last 10 years including analysis of international trade policies, international migration, long-term development and structural change, the Bank's poverty forecast and more recently long-term commodity supply and prices and climate change scenarios. Though building dynamic scenarios requires significantly more exogenous inputs than the more standard comparative static analysis, it also leads to a richer set of policy questions that lie at the heart of many development issues.

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