@article{Valenzuela:331527,
      recid = {331527},
      author = {Valenzuela, Ernesto and Hertel, Thomas W.},
      title = {Trade Reforms and Poverty: Are the Impacts Discernable?},
      address = {2006},
      pages = {45},
      year = {2006},
      note = {Presented at the 9th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia},
      abstract = {The impacts of trade policy reform on poverty have been a  subject of heated debate. Some have argued that  multilateral trade reform could make substantial inroads  into global poverty, while others assert that the price  changes associated with global trade reform are minimal and  may not be distinguishable from price fluctuations induced  by annual shocks to the global economy. This paper formally  addresses the issue by developing an approach to assess  whether poverty changes induced by trade reform are  statistically discernable from the average annual random  fluctuations in poverty due to inherent commodity market  volatility. We focus specifically on the staple grains  sector. Volatility in the grains markets is implemented via  stochastic supply shocks introduced into a CGE model of the  global economy. The resulting price distributions are  inputted into a micro-simulation model built upon national  household surveys in order to evaluate the likely poverty  impacts. Conclusions are drawn based on comparison of the  resulting poverty distributions from the weather-induced  variability only, versus the combined effect of the latter  with trade reform as well. Hypothesis tests permit us to  determine whether the two distributions are statistically  distinct. Results indicate that, when only grains markets  are considered, the short-run impacts on poverty of trade  liberalization can not be distinguished from market  volatility in six of the fifteen focus countries.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331527},
}