@article{Li:330256,
      recid = {330256},
      author = {Li, Shantong and He, Jianwu},
      title = {Impacts of Population Aging on Economic Growth and  Structure Change in China},
      address = {2013},
      pages = {13},
      year = {2013},
      note = {Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic  Analysis, Shanghai, China},
      abstract = {The feature of Chinese demographic structure is changing  from a high fertility rate, high death rate and low life  expectancy to low fertility rate, low death rate and high  life expectancy, and the phenomena of ageing population in  coming future will become more serious. The data of Sixth  National Population Census show that the ageing rate of the  population is higher than expectations, the share of  population with age 60 years and above is 13.26%, the share  of population with age 65 years and above is 8.87%; average  number of members of each household is 3.10 persons, this  figure is 0.34 person less than 3.44 persons of Fifth  National Population census in 2000. This demographic change  has not only increased the burden of social security  pension and reduced the active labor force; it will also  influence the saving rate and consumption structure and  further affect the economic structure and sustainability of  China’s economic development. CGE has been applied to many  research areas, but the papers considering the population  age structure factors in the CGE model are not a lot. With  the aging of the population received extensive attention,  some foreign scholars began to use the CGE model studying  the aging of the population, such as Sang Gyoo's Yoon,  Geoffrey J.D.Hewings (2006), Euijune Kim, Geoffrey J.D.  HewingsHeedeok Cho (2011), Seryoung Park, Geoffrey J.D.  Hewings (2010). But CGE model study considers more about  the size of the labor supply, the homogeneity of the  representative consumer assumption, but does not take into  considering that the aging will affect the economy from  consumption aspect. In fact, with the economic development,  the growth of life, and the higher levels of education, it  results in the extension of the retirement age, which may  make the labor force did not declined as imagined,  especially as a country with a large population. At the  same time, changes in consumer behavior of people of  different ages may be larger and more important, Hewing  (1982, 1989) pointed out that the household sector and  consumer behavior in the CGE model is very important, the  family of different age structure generally have different  consumption patterns. Therefore, by improving the DRC-CGE  model and introducing variables to characterize the  structure of household consumption patterns in the demand  side, the paper study different population policy and the  family demographic changes on economic growth and  industrial structure, to provide policy recommendations on  population policy orientation. This paper starts the study  to analyze change of consumption structure of household of  various age structure based upon survey data (2003-2007) of  CHIPS (Chinese Household Income Project) to explore the  changing relationship between China’s demographic structure  and consumption structure. Then according to the head of  household age and family size of the household, we divided  the households in the CGE model into 12 groups (six groups  in rural and urban areas respectively) to capture the  relation between consumer behavior and demographic  structure, and analyze the impact of demographic change  under three different population policies scenarios on the  China’s economic growth and structure change using DRC  dynamic recursive CGE model.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/330256},
}