• Malawi is arguably the worldʼs most tobacco dependent economy, yet its future as a major tobacco producer is uncertain due to the perception of declining tobacco prices over time, along with health risks, child labor laws, and anti-smoking campaigns. • Using nationally representative data, along with time series data on tobacco prices, we assessed the profitability of Malawian tobacco and its potential alternative crops. • We found that the percentage of smallholder farmers growing tobacco declined over the past 10 years from 16% in 2009-2010 to 5% in 2018-2019. • Smallholder farmers who left tobacco cultivation allocated their tobacco land to maize and to smaller extent grain legume crops. • Tobacco is more profitable than alternative crops for smallholder farmers who remained in tobacco production. • Improving value chains for other high value crops is more cost-effective than focusing on moving the remaining 5% of smallholder farmers out of tobacco cultivation.