Film managers are usually faced with making decisions involving risk and uncertainty. A common source of risk and uncertainty is related to price variability. It is possible to attach probabilities to price variability based on historical data, thus providing the manager with additional information to base decisions. The purpose of this study is to develop and present extension information in a form that assists a producer to choose a marketing strategy based on the producer's own risk preference. This was done by developing profitability of percentage rates of return based on historical data. Alfalfa hay is used as the commodity example.


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