Structure of the USDA Livestock and Poultry Baseline Model

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) produces annual 10-year projections for the food and agriculture sector that cover major agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregated indicators of the U.S. farm sector. These projections are published in an annual report, with the most recent being USDA Agricultural Projections to 2031. Also, the Economic Report of the President includes these projections and has a direct impact on policy decisions. These 10-year projections are called the “baseline.” The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) maintains a stand-alone livestock baseline model, which characterizes the relationships among livestock production and the market conditions for related animal products for cattle/beef, hogs/pork, chicken, and turkey. This bulletin outlines the equations used to create the livestock baseline. These equations were used in the creation of the 2031 baseline report.