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Abstract

A geometric distributed lag model was hypothesized as the structural relationship between purebred breeding bull price and economic variables determining the bull's value as a productive asset. Parameter estimates for the nonstochastic difference equation were obtained from a data sample including nineteen years of average price paid for yearling purebred Hereford bulls. Statistical results supported the hypotheses; expected bull price was responsive to calf price and cowherd inventory. An oscillating geometric adjustment pattern was found which reflected periodicity in bull replacement decisions. The general conclusion was that relevant information is rapidly incorporated into purebred bull market behavior and price adjusts quickly.

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