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Abstract

The effects on marketing margins and Texas what producers of shifting from a period with stable prices to a period without stable prices were investigated using both econometric and simulation techniques. Empirical evidence reveals wheat export firms are risk averse and that either futures markets were unable to absorb increased price risk or futures markets absorbed increased price risk at a cost of $0.054 per bushel. Increased variability in prices and reduced farm program benefits substantially reduced the probability of Texas wheat producers receiving a reasonable return on equity and a reasonable rate of asset accumulation.

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