@article{Romani:319781,
      recid = {319781},
      author = {Romani, Ilenia and Galeotti, Marzio and Lanza, Alessandro},
      title = {Besides promising economic growth, will the Italian NRRP  also produce fewer emissions?},
      address = {2022-02-28},
      number = {2395-2022-420},
      series = {8.2022},
      pages = {36},
      month = {Feb},
      year = {2022},
      abstract = {The funds allocated by the National Recovery and  Resilience Plan (NRRP) aim to trigger a multiplier effect  on GDP as they are designed to help the recovery after the  Covid-19 pandemic. The GDP increase is in turn expected to  drive energy consumption up which will increase CO2  emissions, given that fossil fuels still account for 79% of  the Italian total primary energy consumption. At the same  time, as the NRRPs are part of the EU Green Deal, an  important share of the Plan’s investments is aimed at  facilitating the green transition, with expected favorable  effects on emissions. Which one of these two effects will  prevail remains to be ascertained. In this study we have  used the GEM (Global Economic Model) by Oxford Economics to  build a number of scenarios and generate the relevant  simulations aimed at assessing the impact of the Italian  NRRP’s interventions on energy consumption and CO2  emissions. To validate the use of GEM we extensively  considered the macroeconomic impact on GDP and unemployment  rate generated by the model and compare the results to  those presented by other institutions and obtained using  different models. The results show that when the green  investments of the NRRP display their effects, there are  climatic benefits in terms of reduced emissions. Compared  to the implementation of the NRRP in 2021, however, the  reduction in emissions by 2030 is modest and equal to 5%.  As those investments largely refer to the adoption of clean  technologies, the climate benefits are likely to be more  substantial only in subsequent years and over longer  horizons. Update: June 2022},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/319781},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.319781},
}