This study evaluates and forecasts the competitiveness of the Greek olive oil sector in the world market, using the indicator of relative trade advantage (RTA) by estimating the Box-Jenkins auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Results based on data over the last fifty years indicate that ARIMA (0,1,2) is the best model to forecast the competitiveness of the olive oil sector in the world agricultural market. According to the short-term forecast, the commercial advantage of Greek olive oil will improve up to 2022, validating the design of holistic value creation strategies to produce competitive advantage under variant products and market conditions.