The growth rate for U.S. agricultural productivity through the year 2000 may equal the historical rate if research and extension (R & E) investment increases and unprecedented technologies develop. The level of public expenditures in agricultural R & E is the single most important policy variable in determining growth rates. The most promising new technologies are photosynthesis enhancement (formation of plant carbohydrates through exposure to light), bioregulators (compounds which promote ripening or prolong shelf life) in crop production, and twinning in beef cattle production.