@article{Baruah:303694,
      recid = {303694},
      author = {Baruah, Prerona},
      title = {Seasonality in commodity prices across India: Extent and  implications},
      address = {2020-04},
      number = {2353-2020-552},
      pages = {21},
      year = {2020},
      abstract = {Primary agricultural-markets may be prone to large  seasonal price drops when certain constraints inhibit  farmer-sellers from behaving as rational economic agents.  As several Asian countries are reeling under acute agrarian  distress, this study focuses on India to conduct  disaggregated univariate time-series analysis on the  seasonal component of four major agricultural commodity  prices in over 300 wholesale markets (mandis) using monthly  data spanning more than a decade (2003-2016). Adapting from  recent contributions made to seasonality estimation in  short samples, the study tests harvest-pattern based  specifications of seasonality (viz. trigonometric and  saw-tooth functions) against an unrestricted dummy-variable  specification to reduce estimation bias. Empirical results  show considerable variation in magnitudes of seasonal price  gaps (SG) across space and commodity. In several cases,  they are higher than in international prices. A  cross-sectional analysis of the estimated SGs over  socio-economic indicators reveals that seasonal price drops  have a direct relationship with the proportion of  smallholders in a district. This has adverse implications  for inequality and welfare. Furthermore, SGs are lower in  the districts which have relatively higher access to  credit. The work concludes that effective delivery of  policy necessitates location-specific approaches.  Continuing with blanket policy responses to the agrarian  crisis may aggravate existing inequalities.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/303694},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.303694},
}