@article{Key:301076,
      recid = {301076},
      author = {Key, Nigel and Burns, Christopher and Lyons, Greg},
      title = {Financial Conditions in the U.S. Agricultural Sector:  Historical Comparisons},
      address = {2019-10-22},
      number = {1476-2020-043},
      series = {Economic Information Bulletin Number 211},
      pages = {36},
      month = {Oct},
      year = {2019},
      abstract = {Recent economic conditions and the financial health of the  U.S. farm sector have raised concerns among farm policy  stakeholders. After peaking around 2012, farm sector income  declined while farm debt continued to rise. Farm real  estate stopped rapidly appreciating in value, and land  prices declined in some regions. Between 2016 and early  2019, interest rates rose—increasing the cost of borrowing  for some farmers. Lower commodity prices in the near future  would make it more difficult for some farmers to meet their  loan obligations and pay for production expenses. Farmers  who made substantial investments in machinery or land when  commodity prices and farm incomes were high could face  elevated risks of financial insolvency. This study compares  recent sectoral and farm-level measures of financial  performance relative to historic levels to better  understand the severity of the current downturn in the  agricultural economy. Using data from USDA’s Agricultural  Resource Management Survey, researchers disaggregate  farm-level measures of financial health across farm types  to identify the types of farms that are under the greatest  financial stress. To provide additional perspective on the  financial health of the sector, the study uses data from  agricultural lenders to compare current agricultural loan  delinquencies to levels in the recent past. Finally, model  results on the effects of a hypothetical decline in gross  farm income are used to evaluate the types of farm  operations that would be most vulnerable to a further  downturn in the agricultural economy.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/301076},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.301076},
}