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Abstract

This study determined probable future directions in U.S. value-added agricultural exports to middle-income developing countries (MIDCs) under the assumption of continued income growth. Import share equations for U.S. bulk, semi-processed and value-added wheat or beef products, as a percent of total U.S. wheat or beef product exports to each MIDC, were econometrically estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) technique. The empirical results indicate that in most MIDCs, increases in real per capita income have negative effects on the import share of processed wheat products while having positive effects on the import share of bulk wheat. However, import shares of U.S. processed beef products are likely to increase with income growth in most MIDCs.

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