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Abstract

This study provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform under the WTO for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. It also examines the impact of OECD agricultural support programmes on economic welfare and specialisation in Africa. In the static version of the GTAP model, the study finds that full liberalisation of trade would increase global welfare (income) by 0.3 per cent, but would add 0.7 per cent annually to income in the African region. Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, Southern Africa, are vulnerable to partial trade reforms as they incur losses from partial reform while all other regions derive positive gains from a liberalisation of minor scope.

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