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Abstract

Canadian agricultural trade promotion expenditures have dramatically increased from C$.4 million in 1969/70 to C$26.5 million in 1981/82. To evaluate the effect of these expenditures on agricultural exports an econometric analysis is presented in this study. The extended distributed lag model for export demand is developed and estimated using an iterative autoregressive least squares with instrumental variable (IALSI) method of estimation. The results reveal that the trade promotion programs (aggregate expenditure levels) have had a statistically significant effect on agricultural exports. The analysis of dynamic multipliers indicates that the effect of trade promotion expenditure on export levels is likely to decline gradually and last for about a five-year period. Also, the real export demand for aggregate agricultural products is found close to unitary elastic with respect to the real export price variable.

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