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Abstract

Korean agricultural outlook is roughly divided into two types in terms of outlook period. One is short term outlook which focuses on agricultural products which have high price fluctuations such as vegetables, fruits, fruit-vegetables, livestocks, and this short term outlook is published each month by form of outlook monthly paper except January & February. The other is mid or long term outlook which emphasizes on future demand & supply situations in detail such as production, consumption, import & export, income by scenario based on the world agricultural negotiation which is published each year at once by form of outlook annual paper on February. Especially, In long term outlook, Agricultural Outlook & Information Center had established and used KREI-COMO until 2002. Agricultural Outlook Center's model was modified to forecast future economic index and evaluate agricultural strategies in 2003. This new simulation model is KREI-COSMO (Korea Rural Economic Institute-Commodity Simulation Model). In spite of establishing simulation model, KREI-COSMO, AOIC could not predict future varieties economic index each item in Fruit-vegetable outlook due to restricting data which is needed by making model. This paper aims to analyze the market share of the main fruit-vegetable varieties and predict indirectly future supply situation each variety by using Markov's probability model and Nevo's discrete choice model.

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