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Abstract

Korean Kim-Chi has been famous for the best quality and taste all around world. However, the market share of Korean Kim-Chi in domestic markets is decreasing recently due to the low price and high quality Chinese Kim-Chi import. The condition of Kim-Chi production & export in china has been changed due to Korean Kim-Chi plants and equipment have been transferred to china with manufacture process, In addition, WTO/DDA agricultural negotiations in progressing will be predicted to give more effects on Korean Kim-Chi industry than those of UR negotiations on agriculture. This paper aims to establish forecasting simulation model and particularly analyze the impacts of Chinese Kim-Chi import on Korean Kim-Chi industry. This study points out the future economic indexes of the Korean Chinese Cabbage including Kim-Chi in detail such as production, consumption, import & export, income by scenario based on the modalities for agricultural negotiation.

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