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Abstract

Corn and soybean producers' most likely low and high harvest price expectations were obtained in January and February each year from 1991-1996. Average expectations missed corn prices by $0.23-0.65 per bushel and missed soybean prices by $0.51-1.04 per bushel. Producer price expectations covered a wide range -- $1.00 for corn and $1.70 for soybeans. They consistently underestimated the probability of large price changes from January-February until harvest.

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