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Abstract

The object of this paper is to develop a forecasting tool that will accurately predict the M-W price series. The model reflects the Secretary's final decision for the new M-W estimate which consists of the base month M-W lagged one month plus an update price formula. The statistical model in this report estimates the base month M-W as a function of dairy commodity prices. The latter are used as a proxy for the gross wholesale value of milk used in cheese and butter/nonfat dry milk plants in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The statistical results indicate the model is accurate.

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