@article{Lynch:28552,
      recid = {28552},
      author = {Lynch, Lori and Carpenter, Janet},
      title = {DOES THE FARM SECTOR HAVE A CRITICAL MASS?},
      address = {2002},
      number = {1667-2016-136218},
      series = {Working Paper WP 02-14},
      pages = {34},
      year = {2002},
      abstract = {We examine if the farm sector has a critical mass.  If a  critical mass of farmland acres is needed to sustain a  viable agricultural sector, agriculture profits may decline  once a region has dropped below this threshold, causing the  rate of farmland loss to accelerate.  Agricultural census  and population and housing census data were assembled as a  panel by county and five-year time periods for the 50-year  period (1949-1997) for six Mid-Atlantic States.  Three  random effects models were estimated. The general model  indicates that having less than 189,240 harvested cropland  acres accelerates a county's rate of farmland loss.  As  acres increase by 10% (5,400 acres), the 5-year loss rate  decreases from the predicted 7.9% to 7.67%.  As sales and  percent change in income increase, the rate of farmland  loss also decreases.  The rate falls with the introduction  of a preferential taxation program.  As expenses,  population density, percent change in total housing units,  and percent unemployment increase, the rate of farmland  loss accelerates.  The rate accelerates if the county is  metropolitan.  Yet when the data is divided into an early  (pre-1978) and late (post-1978) period, this threshold  effect disappears in the later period.  The earlier model's  results are similar but in the later period, increases in  population density and sales, increase the rate of loss.   Conversely and counter-intuitively, as expenses increase,  the rate of loss decreases.  Apparently, even if a  threshold existed, our results suggest it might dissipate  overtime.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/28552},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.28552},
}