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Abstract

In a paper titled "Futures Markets as Inverse Forecasters of PostHarvest Prices for Storable Agricultural Commodities", Firch presented evidence from the study of cotton, soybean, and corn futures prices that strongly suggests that these futures markets are not only poor direct forecasters of prices over the planting to harvest period but that in fact market responses to the futures prices cause futures prices to move inversely with the forecast. This paper presents the results of a study of wheat futures prices and finds what appears to be substantial evidence supporting the inverse forecast hypothesis and indirectly the "paradox of the public forecast" hypothesis outlined in the earlier paper.

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