This report provides longrun projections for the global agricultural sector, focusing on 1995 through 2005 prospects for foreign commodity markets. These "baseline" projections were made in December 1993 and represent one plausible longrun scenario for the projection period. The projections reflect a composite of model results and judgmental analysis. The projections are a conditional, current policy scenario with no shocks and are based on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomy, the weather, and international developments. Baseline projections are provided for selected commodities and countries. Longrun baseline projections are used in the U.S. Department of Agriculture to support ongoing activities such as assessing the impact of foreign developments on U.S. agriculture, budget reviews, farm program administration and management, and assessing issues related to world food security. Additionally, they provide a point of departure for discussion of alternative policy scenarios.
