Africa's high consumption variation has resulted in severe food shortages and famine during drought years. This was caused by low and variable food production not supplemented by commercial and food aid imports. Results of a model estimated in this report suggest that weather is the primary determinant of production variation. The capacity to import, defined as the sum of net credit flow plus export earnings, is the variable that best determines levels of food imports. Using the model results, additional food aid needs were projected for 1990 and 1995 under three scenarios--trend, good weather, and bad weather. The range of these needs varied widely, depending on a country's degree of responsiveness to changes in weather. Under the bad weather scenario, all but one country studied are projected to have additional food aid needs in 1990, with food aid contributing almost 25 percent to target consumption.