@article{Kuethe:276505,
      recid = {276505},
      author = {Kuethe, Todd H. and Hubbs, Todd and Sanders, Dwight R.},
      title = {Evaluating the USDA’s Net Farm Income Forecast},
      journal = {Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics},
      address = {2018-09},
      number = {1835-2018-3861},
      year = {2018},
      abstract = {The USDA produces four forecasts of net farm income for  each year; these forecasts are closely monitored by  decision makers across the agricultural sector. However,  little is known about the performance of these forecasts.  Traditional forecast evaluation tests suggest that between  1975 and 2016, the long-horizon forecasts systematically  under-predicted realized values. In addition, the  shorter-horizon forecast revisions overreact to new  information. The findings suggest that forecast users  should adjust their expectations and that the USDA may want  to consider other forecast approaches to supplement current  procedures.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/276505},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.276505},
}