@article{Gatti:275936,
      recid = {275936},
      author = {Gatti, N. and Baylis, K. and Crost, B.},
      title = {Does climate change cause conflict? Damned if you do,  damned if you don’t},
      address = {2018-07},
      number = {2058-2018-5260},
      pages = {31},
      year = {2018},
      abstract = {Using detailed data on conflict-related incidents in  Indonesia, we exploit seasonal variation in the  relationship between rainfall and agricultural production  to study the mechanism linking climate change and conflict.  Furthermore, we ask whether irrigation and dam  infrastructure help mitigate this link. We find that  wet-season rainfall decreases production while rainfall  during the dry season is beneficial for production. If  agriculture is the mechanism through which climate change  affects conflict, then we should expect the opposite effect  on conflict, but with one-year lag. Our results show that,  as expected, dry-season rainfall decreases conflict in  Indonesia and in agricultural regions like Java, while  wet-season rainfall increases conflict. In the latter, we  find that irrigation increases conflict instead of reducing  it. For Indonesia, irrigation reduces the effect of  conflict during the dry season and amplifies it during the  wet season. A plausible explanation is that the irrigation  network is not well adapted to agriculture necessities  which could generate civil unrest when a weather shock  occurs. A policy that aim to reducing the impact of climate  change on civil conflict should consider these drawbacks.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/275936},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.275936},
}