@article{Nason:273616,
      recid = {273616},
      author = {Nason, James M. and Smith, Gregor W.},
      title = {Great Moderation(s) and U.S. Interest Rates: Unconditional  Evidence},
      address = {2007-11},
      number = {2110-2018-4265},
      series = {Working Paper No. 1140},
      pages = {36},
      year = {2007},
      abstract = {The US economy experienced a Great Moderation sometime in  the mid-1980s – a fall in the volatility of output growth –  at the same time as a fall in both the volatility of  inflation and the average rate of inflation. We put this  moderation in historical perspective by comparing it to the  post-WWII moderation. According to theory, the statistical  moments – both real and nominal – that shift during these  moderations in turn influence interest rates. We examine  the predictions for shifts in the unconditional average of  US interest rates. A central finding is that such shifts  probably were due to changes in average inflation rather  than to those in the variances of inflation and consumption  growth.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/273616},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.273616},
}