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Abstract

It is a well known that not all trade in southern Africa is recorded. Recorded trade therefore gives a skew picture and this paper specifically attempts to estimate and inv~stigate unrecorded tJ:ade in th~ region, using the grain ~arket and the "grain trade ratio". Unrecorded trade occurred m most southern ~ca countries and ~o recorded. ~de JS observed for South Africa during the period 1986-1991. This corresponds to the time when South Afl:ica was p~hti~lly exclu~ed from formal trading in southern Africa. The grain trade ratio (grain trade as percentage of gram production) JS decreasing. The paper examines why the trade ratio decreased when national policies emphasized local food production programmes, market liberalization and more open trade in the region.

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