@article{Bizimana:266589,
      recid = {266589},
      author = {Bizimana, Jean-Claude and Richardson, James W.},
      title = {Agricultural Technology Assessment for Smallholder Farms  in Developing Countries: An Analysis using a Farm  Simulation Model (FARMSIM)},
      address = {2018-01-17},
      number = {2015-2018-157},
      year = {2018},
      abstract = {The rural population in developing countries depends on  agriculture. However, in many of these countries,  agricultural productivity remains low with episodes of  famines in drought-prone areas. One of the options to  increase agricultural productivity is through adoption and  use of improved agricultural technologies and management  systems. Being a relatively high risk business due to  factors related to production, marketing and finance,  agriculture requires to devise risk mitigating strategies.  Several models used to evaluate the adoption of  agricultural technologies focus mainly on assessing the  ex-post impact of technology without necessarily  quantifying the profit and risk associated with the  adoption of technologies. This paper introduces a farm  simulation model (FARMSIM) that attempts to evaluate the  potential economic and nutritional impacts of new  agricultural technologies before they are adopted  (ex-ante). FARMSIM is a Monte Carlo simulation model that  simultaneously evaluates a baseline and an alternative  farming technology. In this study, the model is used to  analyze the impact of adoption of small scale irrigation  technologies and fertilizers on the farm income and  nutrition of smallholder farmers in Robit  kebele, Amhara  region of Ethiopia. The farming technologies under study  comprise water lifting technologies (pulley and tank, rope  and washer pump, gasoline/diesel motor pump and a solar  pump) and use of fertilizers. The key output variables  (KOVs) are the probability of positive annual net cash  income and ending cash reserves, probability of positive  net present value and a benefit cost ratio greater than  one. For nutrition, the KOVs relate to the probability of  consumption exceeding average daily minimum requirements of  an adult for calories, protein, fat, calcium, iron, and  vitamin A. The application of recommended fertilizers on  grain and vegetable crops, alongside the use of irrigation  to grow vegetables and fodder using a motor pump had the  highest net present value compared to other scenarios.  Similar results were observed for the net cash farm income  and the ending cash reserves. However, the most feasible  and profitable scenario is the one under the pulley system  which had the highest benefit cost ratio. Solar pump system  had the lowest benefit cost ratio due most likely to high  initial investment cost. As for the nutrition, the  simulation results show an increase in quantities available  to the farm family of all nutrition variables under all  alternative scenarios. However, the daily minimum  requirements per adult equivalent were met only for  calories, proteins, iron and vitamin A but deficiencies  were observed for fat and calcium.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/266589},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.266589},
}