Supply shocks have frequently been related to the behavior of inflation. Those
shocks are in general measured by changes in commodity prices (minerals, oil, agricultural
commodities, etc.). The objective of this paper is to examine the influence of supply shocks
caused by changes in prices of horticultural products (perishable with short cycles) exert in
the Brazilian inflation. Although not quite studied academically, this process has popularly
been associated with important variations on the IPCA index. To deal with this process, a
Phillips curve, following New Keynesians principles, based on the semi structural model
of small size by the Brazilian Central Bank and the estimation method used was Auto-regression with Vector Error Correction (VEC) in its structural version. The results show that there is evidence that
the prices of horticultural products may have a considerable participation in the IPCA and inflation expectations
variations and their shocks produce effects that persist for several months in the trajectory of these two variables.
