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Abstract

Accession to the European Union as well as the ongoing process of liberalization of global agricultural trade changed the conditions for agri-food trade between Poland and NAFTA countries. The study is an attempt to defi ne the signifi cance of NAFTA countries in the Polish agri-food trade, to assess the competitive position of selected Polish agri-food products on this market in years 2004–2012 and to predict its level for the year 2020, assuming two simulation scenarios: the lack of liberalization (I) and liberalization of world agricultural trade (II). A deliberately selected set of ex post indicators of competitive position as well as agricultural sector equilibrium model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) were used in the paper. The analysis showed that among non-EU countries this trade bloc is one of the most important trade partners for Poland. On this foreign market mainly Polish animal products and fruits and vegetables were competitive. The results of model simulations conducted for different groups of agri-food products showed that by 2020 a favourable competitive position on the NAFTA market might be expected in meat and meat products as well as in milk and dairy products.

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