Files
Abstract
Whether China maintains its business-as-usual energy-intensive growth trajectory or
changes to a sustainable development alternative has significant implications for global
energy and climate governance. This paper is motivated to theoretically examine China’s
potential transition from its energy-intensive status quo to an innovation-oriented growth
prospect. We develop an economic growth model that incorporates the endogenous
mechanism of technological innovation and its interaction with fossil energy use and the
environment. We find that from an initial condition with a pristine environment and a small
amount of capital installation, the higher dynamic benefits of physical investment will
incentivize the investment in physical capital rather than R&D-related innovation.
Accumulation of the energy-consuming capital thus leads to an intensive use of fossil
energy - an energy-intensive growth pattern. But if the mechanism of R&D-related
innovation is introduced into the economy, until the dynamic benefit of R&D is equalized
with that of capital investment, the economy embarks on R&D for innovation. As a result,
the economy will evolve along an innovation-oriented balanced growth path where
consumption, physical capital and technology all grow, fossil energy consumptions
decline, and environmental quality improves.