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Abstract

This paper attempts to estimate energy crop supply using an LP model comprising hundreds of representative farms of the arable cropping sector in France. In order to enhance the predictive ability of such a model and to provide an analytical tool useful to policy makers, interval linear programming (ILP) is used to formalise bounded rationality conditions. In the presence of uncertainty related to yields and prices it is assumed that the farmer minimises the distance from optimality once uncertainty resolves introducing an alternative criterion to the classic profit maximisation rationale. Model validation based on observed activity levels suggests that about 40% of the farms adopt the min-max regret criterion. Then energy crop supply curves, generated by the min-max regret model, are proved to be upward sloped alike classic LP supply curves.

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