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Abstract

Opportunities to make sequential decisions and adjust activities as a season progresses and more information becomes available characterize the farm management process. In this paper, we present a discrete stochastic two-stage utility efficient programming model of organic dairy farms, which includes risk aversion in the decision maker's objective function as well as both embedded risk (stochastic programming with resource) and non-embedded risk (stochastic programming without recourse). Historical farm accountancy data and subjective judgments were combined to assess the nature of the uncertainty that affects the possible consequences of the decisions. The programming model was used within a stochastic dominance framework to examine optimal strategies in organic dairy systems in Norway.

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