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Abstract

A farm model is developed for simulating the potential income change resulting from conversion to organic farming. The model uses conventional farm data, taken from the Belgian FADN. Given the normative character of the model, and the impossibility of calibration to historical conversion behaviour, two model variants, a rigid and a flexible, are created to broaden the analysis scope. Moreover, extra attention is paid to the verification process and sensitivity analysis. Results reveal that the economic potential for conversion is rather high, if farmers are willing to change their farm management sufficiently. Furthermore, conversion potential depends on the farm type and conventional farm characteristics. The model finally proves to be an interesting tool to analyse policy impact.

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